I caught some of Larry King's interview with Howard Stern, and it got me to thinking about what might happen in the future of radio. Of course, I had a very minor dalliance in radio, thanks to Richard and the P1WAC. In fact, Richard got to be a part of Stern's final terrestial radio broadcast and even blogged about it.
And now my prediction, which is being made without the troublesome bother of supporting evidence.
I think that either Sirius or XM will declare bankruptcy in the next year and a half, leaving their subscribers with worthless pieces or plastic. Either that, or one company will absorb the other. To me, it looks like both companies are spending way too much money chasing after the same audience. They're slashing the costs of the receivers, hoping to make up the costs on the subscriber fees. They're spending more money to sign up celebrities, musicians, and other personalities to exclusive deals. Beyond that, whole sports are being divvied up between the two.
I've heard people bring up the fact that both DirecTV and Dish Network have been around for a while, but the only major difference is the Sunday Ticket package.
The exclusivity factor is a double-edged sword; you don't have to choose between Comcast or Cable One if you want Comedy Central.
The commercial-free aspect of satellite radio is enticing to many, but remember when we were told that cable wouldn't have commercials? I think that it will be just a matter of time before they start airing them to generate more income. I also predict that the fees will go up, but not the basic monthly charge. More channels will become 'premium' or 'ultra' stations along with the sports.
Finally, I suspect that a lot of people will shell out the money for a receiver and a few months of service, and realize that maybe they don't need 8 hours of jazz fusion.
There is every possibility that I'll be proved 100% dead wrong on all of these points. But if my prediction comes true, I fully reserve the right to dance about the streets, giggling madly.
Which isn't too different from my regular Friday night.